New energy vehicle industry subsidies will decline, industry competition will intensify
A number of new energy industry chain companies disclosed their 2018 performance forecasts, and profits of related companies such as new energy buses and motor electronic control fell sharply. Analysts pointed out that over-capacity or product homogenization in the electrical control, anode materials, and electrolytes of the motor will further intensify competition in the future. Ping An Bank (11.000, 0.00, 0.00%) Transportation Logistics Finance Division and Ping An Securities Research Institute's latest disclosure of the "New Energy Automotive Industry Blue Book (2018)" that the new energy vehicle industry is experiencing slow to fast, from quantity to quality The key climbing period will be ushered in the era of parity after the subsidy exits after 2020. The gradual withdrawal of subsidies will guide the new energy automobile industry into market-oriented and orderly competition.
Increased competition
The new energy automobile industry chain includes complete vehicles, three electric (battery, electric motor, electronic control), battery materials, upstream resources, lithium battery equipment, and charging facilities.
Hanrui Cobalt (63.140, 0.23, 0.37%) expects net profit attributable to shareholders in 2018 to increase by 56%-67% over the previous year. Regarding the main reason for the sharp increase in performance, the company said that the demand for ternary lithium battery market has increased, and the sales volume and price of cobalt products have risen. In addition, the company's investment project capacity was further released, driving sales growth.
Zhongtong Bus (5.460, -0.05, -0.91%) expects the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2018 to be 25 million yuan to 37.5 million yuan, down 80.39% to 86.93%. The company said that its operating performance in 2018 dropped sharply year-on-year, mainly because the subsidy policy for new energy buses continued to decline and the company's sales revenue declined. At the same time, the new energy bus promotion subsidy funds are not in place, resulting in an increase in corporate financing costs.
Blue Ocean Huateng (10.520, 0.06, 0.57%) expects net profit attributable to shareholders in 2018 to be 22 million yuan to 32 million yuan, down 75.05%-82.85% from the previous year. Regarding the reasons for the decline in performance, the company said that domestic new energy commercial vehicle production and sales showed a negative growth, and industry competition intensified. The company's orders for new energy auto products have dropped significantly. Due to the control costs of OEMs, the price of electric motor controller products has continued to decline, while the prices of some electronic components of the company have increased.
From the current situation, there are overcapacity or homogenization in the electrical control, negative electrode materials and electrolytes of the motor, and the competition will be further intensified in the future.
The “New Energy Automotive Industry Blue Book (2018)” (“Blue Book”), which was newly disclosed by Ping An Bank’s Transportation and Logistics Financial Department and Ping An Securities Research Institute, pointed out that the new energy vehicle motor electronic control market is in the growth stage, and manufacturers’ revenue is expected to appear. Growth, but the overall profit margin is not optimistic. The homogenization of products, overcapacity and weak bargaining power in the industrial chain have led to a significant decline in the profit of motor electronic control manufacturers; the investment in the construction of graphitization capacity of anode materials will continue, and the industry may experience an increase in overcapacity. The situation will be reduced; lithium battery equipment elimination and mergers and acquisitions will continue. Due to the different customer structure of different lithium battery equipment suppliers in the initial stage of development, small equipment suppliers are at a disadvantage in customer structure, and the concentration of lithium battery equipment will be improved; Product homogenization is serious. In the absence of technological innovation in recent years, charging pile manufacturers will face fierce competition.
Subsidy
Ping An Securities Research Institute pointed out that after nearly ten years of development, the domestic new energy automobile industry has developed to a production value of 100 billion yuan. In 2017, production and sales reached 800,000 units, an increase of more than 50% year-on-year. In November 2018, it exceeded one million units. . As the core focus of the 2025 China manufacturing policy, the domestic new energy automobile industry is experiencing a critical climbing period from slow to fast, from quantity to quality. After 2020, it will usher in the era of parity after the subsidy exit.
The Blue Book predicts that from 2018 to 2020, the domestic new energy vehicle production and sales will reach 1.1 million, 1.6 million and 2.1 million, respectively, and the installed capacity of power batteries will reach 50GWh, 79GWh and 110GWh respectively. The decline in the price of power batteries and the continuous increase in the range of electric vehicles will increase the power consumption of bicycles. With the continuous improvement of the battery energy density requirements of the state subsidy policy, the industry “leader” has shown significant technical competitiveness, the scale of R&D investment is prominent, and the market share is expected to continue to concentrate.
In addition, the gradual withdrawal of subsidies will guide the new energy automobile industry into market-oriented and orderly competition. It is expected that the subsidies for new energy vehicles will continue to decline in 2019. It is expected that high endurance and high energy density models will receive stronger support.
At the beginning of July 2018, the average fuel consumption of Chinese passenger car companies and the new energy vehicle points management platform were launched, and the “double points” transaction of passenger car enterprises was officially launched.
The Blue Book pointed out that the core of the "double points" policy is to promote the popularity of pure electric vehicles from the supply side. At present, the proportion of the "double points" policy for the current car companies, whether it is a self-owned brand or a joint venture brand, in the case of not buying points, basically can pass the double points assessment requirements in 2019-2020. It is not ruled out that future policies will continue to exert pressure from the supply side to increase the proportion of new energy points in the “double points” policy, and force the enterprises to further increase investment in new energy products and stimulate the development of the industrial chain.
