Fourth, the development trend and competition pattern of the vehicle industry
Based on the previous forecasting model, we estimate that the overall output of new energy in 17 years is about 661,000. The output structure is: new energy passenger cars are about 455,000, of which about 368,000 pure electric passenger cars, about 8.7 plug-in hybrid passenger cars. 10,000; new energy buses are about 106,000, of which about 92,000 are pure electric buses, about 14,000 are plug-in hybrid buses, and about 102,000 are new energy vehicles. It is estimated that the total output of new energy will be about 2.006 million in 2020, and the production structure will be: 1.493 million new passenger vehicles, including 1.367 million pure electric passenger cars, and about 126,000 plug-in hybrid passenger cars; new energy buses are about 17.60 million, of which about 158,000 pure electric buses, about 18,000 plug-in hybrid buses; about 337,000 new energy vehicles.
From 2017 to 2020, the overall growth rate of new energy vehicles is about 44.8%, and new energy passenger cars are about 48.6%, of which 54.8% are pure electric passenger cars and about 13.3% are plug-in hybrid passenger cars; New energy buses are about 18.4%, of which 19.8% are pure electric buses, 8.7% for plug-in hybrid buses, and 49.8% for new energy vehicles.
In terms of new energy passenger vehicles (pure power + plug-in), BYD's market share accounted for 31.36%, ranking first in the industry, with a market share of 31.46% in the pure electricity sector and 66% in the plug-in market. BYD's models Tang, Qin and e6 have a market share of 9.69%, 6.75% and 6.36% in the new energy passenger vehicle segment, respectively. The first listed e5 still accounts for 4.82% of the market share. Geely and BAIC's market share accounted for 15.02% and 14.26% respectively ranked second and third in the industry. Geely mainly relies on Emgrand EV, and the bicycle market share is about 5.3%. BAIC mainly relies on BAIC EU and EV series, corresponding to the market bicycle market share. Both are 5.8%.
The top three sectors of the bus industry are Yutong, Zhongtong and BYD, with corresponding market shares of 22.79%, 11.97% and 11.27% respectively. New energy buses are mainly divided into buses, road vehicles and special vehicles. In terms of sales structure in 2016, buses occupy 84% of the volume. Yutong’s core advantage lies in maintaining the highest market share in the new energy bus segment. Compared with 25%, Zhongtong and BYD account for the same proportion of new energy bus market share, accounting for about 14% market share.
The top three market segments of special-purpose vehicles are Dongfeng Motor, Shanghai Commercial Vehicle and Shandong Haoyu, with corresponding market shares of 32%, 24% and 20%.
