Motor market situation
We expect sales of motors (excluding inverters) to grow at an average annual rate of 18% by 2030. By 2030, the overall sales volume of the industry will reach $19.5 billion, which is nearly 17 times higher than the 2015 level of $1.2 billion.
It is expected that the sales of electric motors will increase from 3.6 million in 2015 to 49 million in 2030. At the same time, the number of bicycle motors is expected to decline, from 1.8 to 1.4, mainly due to the increase in sales of pure electric vehicles with single motors.
However, we expect to increase the unit price of the motor, from the current $350 to $380, mainly driven by the wider application of high-priced high-power motors.
In terms of market share, Toyota Group is far ahead in the 2016 data (the group mainly produces motor companies including Denso and Aisin Seiki), and Honda Group ranks second, while both groups are also The hybrid field is a global leader. This was followed by BYD and Taiwanese motor manufacturer Tomita Electric, which supplied Tesla.
In the long-term development of the motor industry, the rise of third-party suppliers will be the general trend. If we look at the current industrial chain of the Japanese auto industry, it is not difficult to find that the top three companies (Toyota, Honda, Nissan) occupy the leading position tend to be self-powered products, which is not only related to the traditional genes of Japanese manufacturing companies, but also The stage of industry development is related.
If we look at the history of the PC and mobile phone industry, we can easily find that these two industries are highly integrated upstream and downstream in the initial stage, whether it is HP, Apple, Silicon Graphics in the PC industry, Nokia or Motorola in the mobile phone industry. They are highly integrated in the industrial chain, because the initial product upgrades are faster, and upstream component suppliers need to react quickly to each other, so the integrated production model has a high cost performance;
However, in the middle and late stages of the development of the industry, due to the expansion of the scale of the entire market, and the speed of product replacement and replacement does not need to be as fast as the initial stage, the scale effect of the third-party suppliers as the target of the entire market is reflected, which also gave birth to Foxconn. The rise of a range of third-party suppliers such as Micron and Hynix.
The new energy automotive motor industry is no exception. From the current point of view, Honda has announced that it will cooperate with Hitachi to produce motors. At the same time, Nissan also mentioned in the investor exchange meeting that it may start mining motors in the future.
In October 2017, Mitsubishi Electric announced that it will supply motors and inverters for Daimler Benz. With the popularity of high-performance, low-cost products from third-party motor manufacturers, the market share of the motor industry from the self-supplied to the third-party enterprises is the general trend.
At present, Japanese motor companies have begun to respond to the trend changes brought about by electrification. We expect Denso and Aisin Seiki to first take advantage of their existing scale and occupy market share at a lower cost, and the closely following electric and Mingdian will follow quickly.
At present, the average gross profit margin of the motor industry is around 30%, and the production scale is one of the main factors determining the level of gross profit margin.
