Motor market conditions
We estimate that the average annual growth rate of motor sales will reach 18% by 2030. By 2030, the total sales volume of the industry will reach $19.5 billion, which is nearly 17 times higher than the 2015 level of $1.2 billion.
It is expected that the sales of electric motors will increase from 3.6 million in 2015 to 49 million in 2030. At the same time, the number of bicycle motors is expected to decline, from 1.8 to 1.4, mainly because of the increase in the sales of single-motor pure electric vehicles.
However, the unit price of the motor is expected to increase further, from the current $350 to $380, which is mainly driven by the wider use of high-priced high-power motors.
In terms of market share, the Toyota Group is far ahead of the 2016 data, and the Honda Group ranks second, while the two groups are also leading the world in the hybrid category. This was followed by BYD and Taiwanese motor manufacturer Tomita Electric, which supplied Tesla.
In the long-term development of the motor industry, the rise of third-party suppliers will be the general trend. If we investigate the status of the industrial chain of the Japanese car industry at that time, it is not difficult to find that the top three companies occupying the leading position tend to be self-powered products. This is related to the traditional genes of Japanese manufacturing companies and to the stage of development of the industry.
If we look at the history of the PC and mobile phone industry, it is not difficult to find that these two industries are highly integrated upstream and downstream in the initial stage. Whether it is HP, Apple or Silicon Graphics in the PC industry, it is still Nokia in the mobile phone industry. Motorola is highly integrated in the industrial chain, because in the initial product upgrade speed is faster, the upstream component suppliers need to respond quickly, so the integrated production form has a higher cost performance;
However, in the middle and late stages of the development of the industry, because the entire market plan is expanding, and the speed of product renewal is not as fast as the initial stage, the planning effect of third-party suppliers targeting the entire market at the moment is manifested, which also gave birth to Foxconn. The rise of a series of third-party suppliers such as Micron and Hynix.
The new energy car motor industry is not an exception. From that point of time, Honda has announced that it will cooperate with Hitachi to produce electric motors. At the same time, Nissan also said at the investor communication meeting that it may start to use the motor in the future.
In October 2017, Mitsubishi Electric announced that it will supply motors and inverters for Daimler. Following the high-performance, low-cost products of third-party motor manufacturers, the market share of the motor industry from the self-supplied to the third-party enterprises is the general trend.
Nowadays, Japanese motor companies have begun to respond to the changes in the trend brought about by electrification. We expect Denso and Aisin Seiki to use their existing planning advantages to occupy market share at a lower cost, and the closely following electric and Mingdian will follow quickly.
The average gross profit margin of the motor industry is now around 30%, and the production planning is one of the primary factors in determining the gross margin of the gross profit margin.
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