Analysis on the Development Trend of Motor Electronic Control in New Energy Industry
First, the development trend of the motor industry
The drive motor is usually equipped with one new energy vehicle, but the price of the motor carried by different types of new energy vehicles is quite different. For the unit price of the motor, the model is calculated as follows:
First, the unit price of pure electric passenger car motor is determined; the motor price is linear with the motor power. Generally speaking, the high-end car motor power is greater than the low-end car. In 2016, the A0 class and the A00 class car accounted for about 63%. Grade A accounts for about 36%, and Grade B and Grade C account for about 1%. According to industry research, the general A0 and A00 electric drive assemblies (motor and electric control) price is about 0.6 million, A-class is about 20,000, B-class and C-class power is relatively larger than A-class (ModelS power 310KW is about BYD Qin 210KW) 1.93 times), and the motor is slightly cheaper than the electronic control price. We account for 45% of the motor price and 55% of the electronic control price. According to the proportion of each model and the unit price of the corresponding motor, the unit price of the pure electric passenger car in 2016 is about 0.5 million yuan. The determination of the late price is mainly affected by two factors: on the one hand, the change of the structure of the vehicle, we believe that with the upgrade of the vehicle consumption, the new energy vehicles will gradually gradually transition from the A00 level and the A0 level (Zhidou, etc.) to the A level ( Roewe ERX5) and even B-class models (Tesla), on the other hand, we give the motor unit price 3% annual drop;
Second, the unit price of pure electric bus motor is determined; according to the unit price of domestic mainstream bus motor manufacturers, we give 33,000 units per year for 16 years, and the cost of the industry chain has dropped significantly in 17 years. The motor link has dropped by about 15-20%, giving 18%. The decline, we believe that the price reduction of the motor basically bottomed out, and maintained a 2% annual decline in the later period;
Third, the unit price of plug-in type motor is determined; the maximum drive power of plug-in and pure electric motor is different, the general motor unit price is greatly affected by power, BYD Qin pure electric version maximum power 160kw, plug-in version 100kw, Roewe pure The electric version of ERX5 has a maximum power of 86kw and the plug-in version has a maximum power of 56kw. Since the motor price is positively related to the power, we roughly take the plug-in type of motor motor unit price to be 65% of pure electricity;
Fourth, the unit price of the special-purpose motor is determined; the power of the new energy-specific motor is generally smaller than that of the passenger car, mainly because the large-scale special-purpose vehicles are still mostly driven by fuel, and the pure-electric-driven special-purpose vehicles are mainly medium-sized logistics vehicles. 15,000/set, the cost reduction in the 17 years has dropped by about 12%, and the stability has stabilized at the annual drop of 2%.
According to our estimates, the market space for new energy-driven motors in 2017 is about 5.85 billion, about 14.4 billion in 2020, and the average annual compound growth rate of the industry in 2017-2020 is 35.0%.
