Air-conditioning motor: industry risks increase, escalation pressure increases
As of May 2018, the frenzied growth of China's home air-conditioning industry is continuing – the high-growth scheduling and shipments have lasted for 20 months! In the past three years, China's air-conditioning industry has repeatedly ignored the huge amount of high inventory, and even gambled to win the summer. Now, the inventory of China's air-conditioning market is once again standing at a high level of 45 million units. What kind of situation will the entire air-conditioning industry face?
Along with the “crazy growth” of air conditioners, the air-conditioning motor industry has continued to produce at full capacity in the past two years. With the increase in the risk of air-conditioning market and the trend of upgrading air-conditioning products, the air-conditioning motor industry is also facing market risks. Strong pressure on technology upgrades.
Industry performance is remarkable, and the market risk is increasing
The air-conditioning industry has been in hot sales for nearly two years, which has made the air-conditioning motor industry completely unable to stop. The mainstream companies are almost making strides on the dual track of increasing production and expanding production capacity. "Not afraid of capacity redundancy, I am afraid that orders can not keep up with the rhythm" has become the consensus and normal state of air-conditioning motor companies. But how long can this state last?
Industry data based on the frenzied growth of air-conditioning sales is also jaw-dropping. According to industry online data, as of April 2018, the cumulative sales volume of air conditioner motors in the 2018 freezing year (hereinafter referred to as the 2018 cold year) was 261 million units, a year-on-year increase of 21.7%. Among them, the internal sales volume was 213 million units, an increase of 28.6% year-on-year!
Air-conditioning motor companies have been in a wait-and-see state for the industry while they are busy with the order volume. They are not confident enough that the air-conditioning industry will win again in the summer. “What will happen to the air-conditioning market in the second half of 2018?” It has become almost a concern for mainstream manufacturers of air-conditioning motors.
In fact, the concerns of air-conditioning companies on the market outlook are not unreasonable. In the case of a significant decline in the real estate market compared to the same period last year, the performance of air conditioners in retail terminals is far less than the delivery side.
From the 2018 cold year, Zhongyi Kang pushed the total data to show that as of April 2018, the cumulative sales of air conditioners in the 2018 cold year was 34,238,800 units, an increase of 16.53% year-on-year; the retail sales increased by 20.44%. In the same period, industry online data showed that domestic sales volume was 56.746 million units, an increase of 21.36%.
From the natural year of 2018, the total data of Zhongyikang shows that from January to April 2018, the cumulative sales of air conditioners was 18.27 million units, an increase of 11.73% year-on-year; the retail sales increased by 16.96% year-on-year. In the same period, industry online data showed that domestic shipments were 30,860,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 23.1%.
The above-mentioned air-conditioner retail and shipment data shows several major factors: First, the air-conditioning industry continued to channel water storage this year after the rapid absorption of the previous year's cold storage inventory, and even to prevent the previous year's heat outages and the pressure of the goods Secondly, although the retail sales are still growing steadily, due to the substantial weakening of the real estate market, the growth rate of air-conditioner retail sales has slowed down, and the growth rate of installations is much lower than the growth rate of shipments. Third, the channel inventory is In the peak season of 2018, it will once again stand at a high level of about 45 million units, and the weather will once again become a decisive factor. Fourth, the situation of upgrading of air-conditioning products and raising the average price is further clarified.
Under this circumstance, the air-conditioning motor industry has also followed suit, entering the state of “increasing scale and increasing risk”.
In the integrated air-conditioning industry, the performance of the air-conditioning motor industry in the 2018 cold year is also distinctive. First, the monthly order volume is much higher than the previous year, the stocking supply situation is very tight; second, in the seller's market, the price war competition is not fierce; third, the industry upgrade trend is obvious, the DC brushless motor trend is the trend; Fourth, the production capacity accelerated, and the risk of market competition increased.
In this state, the mainstream enterprises of air-conditioning motors have expanded their production capacity and increased their output. No matter the 2018 cold year or the first 4 months of the natural year, their performances are outstanding.
According to the rough statistics of the "Electric Appliance" reporter, Welling Motor expanded the total production capacity of air-conditioning motors to 120 million units in 2018. It is estimated that the total sales volume of the 2018 cold year will reach 115 million units; Kaibang Motor will put the air-conditioner motors in 2018. The total production capacity will be expanded to 90 million units, and the total output is expected to reach 85 million units. Wolong Motor has expanded its production capacity to 50 million units through technology improvement and investment in 2018. The sales volume has increased by 50% year-on-year; the capacity of Ocean Electric has expanded to 75 million units. The sales volume is expected to be 70 million units; Shibaura plans to transfer 30% of its current export capacity to Vietnam, and use 60 million units of its domestic production capacity for domestic sales.
Conservative statistics, the current total capacity of air-conditioning motors in the Chinese market has exceeded 500 million. If such a huge production capacity declines, the impact on the industry will be very severe. However, during the visit of the “Electrical Appliances” reporter, the answer was reduced by a lot. In 2018, most of the air conditioner motor capacity expansion operations were DC brushless motor production lines.
