Stability is a blessing, micro growth is also positive growth
The China Machinery Industry Federation predicts that the overall demand for the machinery industry will remain tight in 2014, and the industry's development will maintain a stable main tone.
From the perspective of the economic environment, in 2014 China will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, and continue to adjust the industrial structure by using the mechanism. The operation of the machinery industry will still face a weak domestic and foreign demand, and the pressure on the growth of the industry is still very large. However, in terms of the continuity and stability of the policy, the economic operation of the machinery industry in 2014 still has the basic conditions for maintaining overall stability, and the overall trend will continue in 2013. It is estimated that in 2014, the sub-sectors of conventional power generation equipment, metallurgical mining equipment, heavy machinery, and ordinary machine tools in the machinery industry will continue to be in a state of sluggish demand; demand for high-end machine tools, robots and automatic production lines will rise; the construction machinery market will have some The recovery will gradually return to normal from the ups and downs; the growth rate of production and sales of automobiles and agricultural machinery will gradually decline, but the market of large-scale high-end agricultural machinery products will continue to be more prosperous.
The fog is smashing, and the electromechanical industry is speeding up the environment.
Since the State Council issued the Action Plan for Air Pollution Prevention and Control in September last year, all regions and departments have acted swiftly and taken new steps in the comprehensive management of air pollution.
On February 12 this year, Premier Li Keqiang presided over the State Council executive meeting to study and deploy further efforts to strengthen air pollution control such as smog. It is mentioned that the central government will set up special funds and arrange 10 billion yuan this year to implement subsidies for air pollution prevention and control in key areas. From the specific measures, most of them are related to the electromechanical industry, such as: implementing cross-regional power transmission projects, rationally controlling the total coal consumption, promoting the use of clean coal; promoting the upgrading of the quality of automotive refined oil, and fully supplying the country before the end of this year. Vehicle diesel; improve the subsidy policy for purchasing new energy vehicles, and increase efforts to eliminate yellow label cars and old cars. It can be foreseen that the relevant industries that are conducive to energy conservation and environmental protection will usher in a good development opportunity, and those backward and heavily polluting industries and enterprises will accelerate their demise.
What are the business opportunities? Targeting urbanization
China's urbanization rate rose from 27.99% in 1993 to 51.27% in 2012, which brought strong demand to the construction machinery industry. According to the new target requirements, China's urbanization rate will reach 60% by 2020, which will undoubtedly add new impetus to the construction machinery market.
At the same time, the automotive industry has also seen a huge boost brought by urbanization. Shi Jianhua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said recently that the promotion of new urbanization will stimulate new car purchases. Historical experience shows that urbanization will further promote demand for automobile consumption. In addition, the investment in small urban infrastructure and public facilities driven by urbanization, the construction of new residential projects, the demolition of rural land, the construction of large-scale public service facilities, the transportation of urban logistics, sanitation, municipal engineering, etc. have all increased Demand.
Blue Ocean is established, the market will become a bright spot
After the construction machinery, the market is very rich in content, including in-service service, maintenance, leasing and remanufacturing. Yan Jun, president of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, said that the construction machinery aftermarket has great potential. Xu Binshi, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, also said that the construction machinery market will be a new blue ocean.
As far as the automotive industry is concerned, the number of vehicles in China has exceeded 100 million, which is behind the huge demand for after-sales service. In 2013, the scale of China's auto after-sales service market has exceeded 450 billion yuan. It is estimated that the entire after-sales service market will exceed 766 billion yuan in 2015. The automotive aftermarket is becoming an emerging growth point in the entire industrial chain. Experts pointed out that 2014 will be the reshuffle of the automotive aftermarket. Manufacturers with advantages in capital, technology and management will gradually exert their efforts. The development of the automotive aftermarket will be more standardized. Brands that can reflect the differentiated service concept will likely Stand out in the post-market chaos.
Land transfer, promoting the new development of the agricultural machinery industry
Looking forward to 2014, the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee and the Central Rural Work Conference will focus on the future of the country's three rural issues. At the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee, China's agriculture and rural development, especially for Chinese farmers through land resources, homesteads and other assetization and capitalization, to achieve changes in production and income. Not only will it promote China's agricultural development, but more importantly, it will add a strong impetus to the development of the agricultural machinery market. Professionals believe that China's agricultural machinery industry faces two major opportunities in 2014: First, land transfer promotes large-scale operation of land, promotes the demand structure of agricultural machinery market from small machinery to medium-sized and even large-scale development, and promotes industrial restructuring; second, food production and food security. Higher requirements have been put forward for the informationization, digitization and intelligence of agricultural machinery products, and industrial technology upgrading has been promoted.
Explosive growth, new energy vehicles are not impossible
Under the background of the state's policy of promoting low-carbon life, energy conservation and emission reduction, and air pollution control, the new energy automobile industry has entered a golden period of development. The second batch of cities for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles issued by the four ministries and commissions was released recently, supporting the promotion and application of new energy vehicles in 12 cities or regions, laying a solid foundation for the future popularization of new energy vehicles. In the context of policy support and technological progress, 2014 will likely become the first year of explosive growth of new energy vehicles in China. Experts predict that according to the minimum cumulative promotion volume of 5,000 vehicles for each new energy vehicle promotion and application, the two batches of promotion cities need to complete more than 250,000 promotion, of which the public sector new energy vehicle sales are 130,000, neutral hypothesis. 50% of them are sales of new energy buses, and the sales volume of new energy buses is about 65,000. The average annual sales volume in 2014-2015 is about 30,000 units, which is a significant increase compared with the sales volume of less than 10,000 in 2013. At the same time, the increase in subsidies for new energy vehicles will also benefit the pure electric passenger vehicle segment.
Installed 14 GW, the photovoltaic industry is not a dream in winter
On February 12, the National Energy Administration issued a notice for the annual increase in the scale of construction of photovoltaic power generation in 2014. The total new record for the whole year was 14 million kilowatts. According to the plan of the scale of photovoltaic power generation in various provinces issued by the National Energy Administration of China in 2014, the total number of photovoltaic power plants is about 118,000 kilowatts, of which distributed photovoltaics is about 76,000 kilowatts. In the next 5 to 10 years, China may be the world's largest PV market, and total demand is relatively stable. However, there are still two key issues that need to be resolved in the current development of photovoltaic power generation, whether there is still a grid connection for photovoltaic power generation and whether subsidies can be implemented in time.
The National Energy Administration clearly requires that grid companies, in accordance with the annual construction scale, timely formulate supporting power grid construction plans, coordinate and promote the construction and transformation of supporting power grids, and timely do grid access and grid-connected operation services for photovoltaic power generation projects. For distributed photovoltaic power generation projects, power grid enterprises should ensure safe and reliable use of electricity by users, and timely do a good job in electricity metering, electricity bill settlement and state subsidy fund transfer. Now, the state's policy on the development of photovoltaic power generation has been very clear, and the key is how to implement it.
