Multiple factors in policy and trade lead to overcapacity
Some industries in China have already had an absolute excess. That is, with the completion of our industrialization, some of the production capacity may be difficult to digest after we finally complete industrialization. For example, the current production capacity of power generation equipment cannot be digested. The data shows that in 2012, China's thermal power equipment capacity, hydropower equipment capacity, nuclear power equipment capacity utilization rate is 70%-75%, photovoltaic equipment capacity utilization rate is less than 60%, wind power equipment capacity utilization rate is less than 70%, transformer industry The capacity utilization rate is only about 50%. The total capacity of the three power station boiler plants is 90 million kilowatts, but the actual output is only 50 million kilowatts, and the capacity utilization rate is only 55.56%.
At present, there is a surplus of power equipment, especially photovoltaics, wind power equipment and other surpluses are closely related to policy support. In recent years, in order to speed up energy structure adjustment and promote energy conservation and emission reduction, the government has increased support for new energy sources, including photovoltaics and wind power. For the strategic emerging industries, various support policies have been introduced, resulting in the launch of various projects in various places. As there is no unified planning, there is a serious overcapacity. At present, thermal power equipment is also facing excess. Due to energy conservation and emission reduction and pollution control, the government's support for thermal power has been significantly reduced, and new installations have been significantly reduced, resulting in oversupply of equipment.
“The excess of power generation equipment such as photovoltaics and wind power is also related to its own characteristics. Photovoltaic and wind power are unstable compared with traditional power generation, and the location is remote. The investment of a power plant must first solve the problem of subsidies, grid connection, and equipment investment. Subject to other conditions, equipment will often be produced, but the package will not keep up, and there is no way to invest. In addition, 90% of China's PV exports before the launch of double-reverse investigations in Europe and the United States, the export volume has dropped sharply, only Can return to domestic sales, but domestic demand is not enough, resulting in a serious excess." Zhongyu information analyst Guan Daoli said.
Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economic Research Center of Xiamen University, said that in addition to policy support and double-reverse investigations, the slowdown in electricity demand growth in recent years is also an important cause of overcapacity in equipment. As China's economic growth slows, Electricity consumption growth is also insufficiently motivated. Under the overall market downturn, demand has weakened, while capacity has not decreased significantly, resulting in a serious surplus.
Some power generation equipment capacity can meet the global
In 2012, the global crystalline silicon module production capacity was 60.3GW (1GW=1 million kilowatts), of which the production capacity from China was as high as 40GW. In other words, two-thirds of the world's PV capacity is in China. In that year, the installed capacity of global photovoltaics was 30.5GW.
In 2012, China's PV production capacity has exceeded 40GW, and the global PV installation market was about 30GW, which means that China's PV production capacity can meet the global market and is in an absolute excess. Although the output of photovoltaic power generation equipment in China has slowed down significantly compared with previous years, it still accounts for more than half of global production. It is still in a relatively surplus situation. As the domestic PV market continues to expand, the cost of photovoltaic power generation continues to decrease, and the future surplus The situation may improve.
In addition to photovoltaics, wind power faces a similar situation. According to statistics, in 2011, the production capacity of China's major wind power equipment manufacturing industry has reached more than 30 million kilowatts. In 2011, China's new wind power installed capacity was about 17 million kilowatts, down 6.85% from 2010. In 2012, China's wind power installed capacity was about It is 14 million kilowatts. The domestic wind power industry has more than doubled the actual demand.
Overcapacity squeezes corporate profit margins
The excess capacity market cannot be digested, and it also severely squeezes the profit margin of the company. Mr. Xiang Yanmin, Party Secretary and General Manager of TB Transformer Hengyang Transformer Co., Ltd. previously said that “overcapacity has led to a significant decline in the gross profit margin of the industry, frequent industry quality accidents, shoddy small manufacturers, and reduced competitiveness of domestic manufacturers. The consequences of more than double the market demand have led to a growing market of disorderly competition." Taking power generation equipment as an example, the price of products has fallen all the way. Compared with 2008, the price of a million-unit boiler has been reduced by about 340 million yuan, and the price of a million-unit power plant steam turbine has dropped by about 120 million yuan. The price of generators has been reduced by about 20 million yuan.
In 2013, the net profit of Jinfeng Technology, the leading manufacturer of complete machine manufacturing, was 400 million yuan, but the net profit margin of the wind power manufacturing segment was only slightly more than 1%. Among the many subsidiaries of Goldwind Technology, the profit margin of Jinfeng Tianrun, which is the main wind farm, is 15%, which is 10 times the profit margin of the equipment manufacturing sector. The industry believes that the diversified investment of Goldwind Technology has stabilized the total profit fluctuations.
On how to alleviate the absolute excess of the current power generation equipment industry, Lin Boqiang said that on the one hand, to expand the domestic market, to digest production capacity through the market, the current governance of smog, energy conservation and emission reduction, the government has made photovoltaics, wind power as an important means, photovoltaic, The wind power market has broad prospects for development. The growing market is the basis for solving photovoltaics and wind power. On the other hand, speeding up enterprises to “go global”, compared with photovoltaics and wind power, it is possible to reduce pollution and burn coal. The government has not supported the thermal power generation. China's thermal power equipment is cost-effective internationally. It should speed up the "going out" and solve the problem of overcapacity.
